The Probability of A1C Goal Attainment in Patients with Uncontrolled Type-2 Diabetes in a Large Integrated Delivery System: A Prediction Model
Research Design and Methods: Retrospective cohort study using the electronic health record at Cleveland Clinic. Patients with uncontrolled T2D (A1C>9%) were identified on the index date of 12/31/2016 (n=6,973), grouped by attainment (n=1,653 [24.7%) or non-attainment (n=5,320 [76.3%]) of A1C<8% by 12/31/2017, and subgroups compared on a number of demographic and clinical variables. Based on these variables, a nomogram was created for predicting probability of A1C goal attainment.
Results: For the entire population, median age at index date was 57.7 years (53.3% male), and the majority were white (67.2%). Median A1C was 10.2%. Obesity (50.6%), cardiovascular disease (46.9%) and psychiatric disease (61.1%) were the most common comorbidities. Metformin (62.7%) and sulfonylureas (38.7%) were the most common anti-diabetes medications. Only 1,653 (24%) patients achieved an A1C <8%. Predictors of increased probability of A1C goal attainment were older age, white/non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, Medicare health insurance, lower baseline A1C, higher frequency of endocrinology/primary care visits, DPP-4i use, thiazolidinedione use, metformin use, GLP-1RA use, and fewer classes of anti-diabetes drugs. Factors associated with lower probability included insulin use and longer time in the T2D database (both presumed as likely surrogates for duration of T2D).
Conclusions: A minority of patients with an A1C>9% achieved an A1C<8% at one year. While most identified predictive factors are non-modifiable by the clinician, pursuit of frequent patient engagement and tailored drug regimens may help improve A1C goal attainment.