Temporal Trend in Young-Onset Type 2 Diabetes - the Macrovascular and Mortality Risk: Study of UK Primary Care Electronic Medical Records
Research Design and Methods: From the UK primary care database, 370,854 people with new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes from 2000 to 2017 were identified. Analyses were conducted by age groups (18-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 years) and high/low risk status without history of ASCVD at diagnosis - ≥ two of current smoking, high SBP, high LDL-C or chronic kidney disease were classified as high-risk.
Results: Proportion of people aged <50 years at diagnosis increased during 2000-2010 and then stabilised. The incidence rates of ASCVD and ACM declined in people aged ≥50 years, but did not decrease in people <50 years. Compared to people aged ≥50 years, those aged 18-39 years at diagnosis had higher obesity (71% obese), higher HbA1c (8.6%), 71% had high LDL-C, while only 18% were on cardio-protective therapy. Although 2% in this age group had ASCVD at diagnosis, 23% were identified as high-risk. In the 18-39 years group, the adjusted average years to ASCVD /ACM in high-risk individuals (years (95% CI): 9.1 (8.2–10.0) /9.3 (8.1–10.4)) were similar to those with low-risk (years (95% CI): 10.0 (9.5 – 10.5) /10.5 (9.7–11.2)). However, individuals ≥50 years with high-risk were likely to experience an ASCVD event 1.5 - 2 years earlier and death 1.1 – 1.5 years earlier compared to low-risk groups (p<0.01).
Conclusions: Unlike usual-onset, young-onset type 2 diabetes have similar cardiovascular and mortality risk irrespective of their cardiometabolic risk factor status at diagnosis. The guidelines on the management of young-onset type 2 diabetes for intensive risk-factor management and cardioprotective therapies need to be urgently re-evaluated through prospective studies.