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Temporal Trend in Young-Onset Type 2 Diabetes - the Macrovascular and Mortality Risk: Study of UK Primary Care Electronic Medical Records

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posted on 02.07.2020 by Digsu N. Koye, Joanna Ling, John Dibato, Kamlesh Khunti, Olga Montvida, Sanjoy K. Paul
Objectives: To evaluate temporal prevalence trend, cardiometabolic risk factors, and the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) in incident young- and usual-onset type 2 diabetes.

Research Design and Methods: From the UK primary care database, 370,854 people with new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes from 2000 to 2017 were identified. Analyses were conducted by age groups (18-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 years) and high/low risk status without history of ASCVD at diagnosis - ≥ two of current smoking, high SBP, high LDL-C or chronic kidney disease were classified as high-risk.

Results: Proportion of people aged <50 years at diagnosis increased during 2000-2010 and then stabilised. The incidence rates of ASCVD and ACM declined in people aged ≥50 years, but did not decrease in people <50 years. Compared to people aged ≥50 years, those aged 18-39 years at diagnosis had higher obesity (71% obese), higher HbA1c (8.6%), 71% had high LDL-C, while only 18% were on cardio-protective therapy. Although 2% in this age group had ASCVD at diagnosis, 23% were identified as high-risk. In the 18-39 years group, the adjusted average years to ASCVD /ACM in high-risk individuals (years (95% CI): 9.1 (8.2–10.0) /9.3 (8.1–10.4)) were similar to those with low-risk (years (95% CI): 10.0 (9.5 – 10.5) /10.5 (9.7–11.2)). However, individuals ≥50 years with high-risk were likely to experience an ASCVD event 1.5 - 2 years earlier and death 1.1 – 1.5 years earlier compared to low-risk groups (p<0.01).

Conclusions: Unlike usual-onset, young-onset type 2 diabetes have similar cardiovascular and mortality risk irrespective of their cardiometabolic risk factor status at diagnosis. The guidelines on the management of young-onset type 2 diabetes for intensive risk-factor management and cardioprotective therapies need to be urgently re-evaluated through prospective studies.

Funding

Melbourne EpiCentre gratefully acknowledges the support from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Government’s National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) initiative through Therapeutic Innovation Australia.

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