American Diabetes Association
DC22-0945 Supplementary_material_R1.pdf (440.75 kB)

Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the US population aged <20 years through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

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posted on 2022-12-29, 00:10 authored by Thaddäus Tönnies, Ralph Brinks, Scott Isom, Dana Dabelea, Jasmin Divers, Elizabeth J Mayer-Davis, Jean M Lawrence, Catherine Pihoker, Lawrence Dolan, Angela D Liese, Sharon H Saydah, Ralph B D’Agostino Jr., Annika Hoyer, Giuseppina Imperatore



To project the prevalence and number of youth with diabetes and trends in race and ethnicity disparities in the U.S. through 2060.

Research Design and Methods

Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study (SEARCH) for calendar years 2002 to 2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years, while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence. 


The number of youth with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95%-confidence interval [CI]: 209,000;218,000) (type 1 diabetes: 185,000; type 2 diabetes: 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95%-CI: 209,000;282,000) (type 1 diabetes: 191,000; type 2 diabetes : 48,000) in 2060, if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% [95%-CI: -9%;21%] (type 1 diabetes) and 69% [95%-CI: 43%;109%] (type 2 diabetes). Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youth with diabetes will be 526,000 (95%-CI: 335,000;893,000) (type 1 diabetes: 306,000; type 2 diabetes: 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% [95%-CI: 12%;158%] (type 1 diabetes) and 673% [95%-CI: 362%;1,341%] (type 2 diabetes). In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.


The number of youth with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.


Barbara Davis Center at the University of Colorado at Denver DERC NIH x P30 DK57516

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services > Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1R01DK127208-01, 1UC4DK108173, 1U18DP006131, U18DP

Children with Medical Handicaps program managed by the Ohio Department of Health x

Cincinnati's Children's Hospital Medical Center x U48/CCU519239, U01 DP000248, 1U18DP002709

Kaiser Permanente Southern California x U48/CCU919219, U01 DP000246, and U18DP002714

Kaiser Permanente Southern California’s Marilyn Owsley Clinical Research Center

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases x 1R01DK127208-01, 1UC4DK108173, 1U18DP006131, U18DP

Seattle Children's Hospital x U58/CCU019235-4, U01 DP000244, U18DP002710-01

Seattle Children's Hospital and the University of Washington, NIH/NCATS grant number x UL1 TR00423

South Carolina Clinical & Translational Research Institute, at the Medical University of South Carolina, NIH/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) x UL1 TR000062, UL1 Tr001450

University of Cincinnati, NIH/NCATS x UL1 TR000077, UL1 TR001425

University of Colorado Denver x U48/CCU819241-3, U01 DP000247, U18DP000247-06A1

University of Colorado Pediatric Clinical and Translational Research Center, NIH/NCATS x UL1 TR000154

University of North Carolina > University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill U48/CCU419249, U01 DP000254, U18DP002708

Wake Forest University School of Medicine x U48/CCU919219, U01 DP000250, 200-2010-35171