Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the US population aged <20 years through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

Objective

To project the prevalence and number of youth with diabetes and trends in race and ethnicity disparities in the U.S. through 2060.

Research Design and Methods

Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study (SEARCH) for calendar years 2002 to 2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years, while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence. 

Results

The number of youth with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95%-confidence interval [CI]: 209,000;218,000) (type 1 diabetes: 185,000; type 2 diabetes: 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95%-CI: 209,000;282,000) (type 1 diabetes: 191,000; type 2 diabetes : 48,000) in 2060, if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% [95%-CI: -9%;21%] (type 1 diabetes) and 69% [95%-CI: 43%;109%] (type 2 diabetes). Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youth with diabetes will be 526,000 (95%-CI: 335,000;893,000) (type 1 diabetes: 306,000; type 2 diabetes: 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% [95%-CI: 12%;158%] (type 1 diabetes) and 673% [95%-CI: 362%;1,341%] (type 2 diabetes). In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.

Conclusions

The number of youth with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.