Projections of type 1 and type 2 diabetes burden in the US population aged <20 years through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study
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posted on 2022-12-29, 00:10 authored by Thaddäus Tönnies, Ralph Brinks, Scott Isom, Dana Dabelea, Jasmin Divers, Elizabeth J Mayer-Davis, Jean M Lawrence, Catherine Pihoker, Lawrence Dolan, Angela D Liese, Sharon H Saydah, Ralph B D’Agostino Jr., Annika Hoyer, Giuseppina Imperatore<p> </p>
<h2>Objective</h2>
<p>To project the prevalence and number of youth with diabetes and trends in race and ethnicity disparities in the U.S. through 2060.</p>
<h2>Research Design and Methods</h2>
<p>Based on a mathematical model and data from the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study (SEARCH) for calendar years 2002 to 2017, we projected the future prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youth aged <20 years, while considering different scenarios of future trends in incidence. </p>
<h2>Results</h2>
<p>The number of youth with diabetes will increase from 213,000 (95%-confidence interval [CI]: 209,000;218,000) (type 1 diabetes: 185,000; type 2 diabetes: 28,000) in 2017 to 239,000 (95%-CI: 209,000;282,000) (type 1 diabetes: 191,000; type 2 diabetes : 48,000) in 2060, if the incidence remains constant as observed in 2017. Corresponding relative increases were 3% [95%-CI: -9%;21%] (type 1 diabetes) and 69% [95%-CI: 43%;109%] (type 2 diabetes). Assuming that increasing trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continue, the projected number of youth with diabetes will be 526,000 (95%-CI: 335,000;893,000) (type 1 diabetes: 306,000; type 2 diabetes: 220,000). Corresponding relative increases would be 65% [95%-CI: 12%;158%] (type 1 diabetes) and 673% [95%-CI: 362%;1,341%] (type 2 diabetes). In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in type 2 diabetes prevalence are expected, with the highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth.</p>
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
<p>The number of youth with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.</p>
Funding
Barbara Davis Center at the University of Colorado at Denver DERC NIH x P30 DK57516
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services > Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1R01DK127208-01, 1UC4DK108173, 1U18DP006131, U18DP
Children with Medical Handicaps program managed by the Ohio Department of Health x
Cincinnati's Children's Hospital Medical Center x U48/CCU519239, U01 DP000248, 1U18DP002709
Kaiser Permanente Southern California x U48/CCU919219, U01 DP000246, and U18DP002714
Kaiser Permanente Southern California’s Marilyn Owsley Clinical Research Center
National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases x 1R01DK127208-01, 1UC4DK108173, 1U18DP006131, U18DP
Seattle Children's Hospital x U58/CCU019235-4, U01 DP000244, U18DP002710-01
Seattle Children's Hospital and the University of Washington, NIH/NCATS grant number x UL1 TR00423
South Carolina Clinical & Translational Research Institute, at the Medical University of South Carolina, NIH/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) x UL1 TR000062, UL1 Tr001450
University of Cincinnati, NIH/NCATS x UL1 TR000077, UL1 TR001425
University of Colorado Denver x U48/CCU819241-3, U01 DP000247, U18DP000247-06A1
University of Colorado Pediatric Clinical and Translational Research Center, NIH/NCATS x UL1 TR000154
University of North Carolina > University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill U48/CCU419249, U01 DP000254, U18DP002708
Wake Forest University School of Medicine x U48/CCU919219, U01 DP000250, 200-2010-35171
History
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