American Diabetes Association
DC22-1414 Online_only_supplemental_material.docx (450.64 kB)

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for Diabetes in Chronic Pancreatitis: The PREDICT3c Study

Download (450.64 kB)
posted on 2022-11-16, 00:10 authored by Christie Jeon, Phil A. Hart, Liang Li, Yunlong Yang, Eleanor Chang, Melena D. Bellin, William E. Fisher, Evan L. Fogel, Christopher E. Forsmark, Walter G. Park, Stephen K. Van Den Eeden, Santhi Swaroop Vege, José SerranoJosé Serrano, David C. Whitcomb, Dana K. Andersen, Darwin L. Conwell, Dhiraj Yadav, Mark O Goodarzi, Study of Chronic Pancreatitis, Diabetes, and Pancreatic Cancer (CPDPC)


Objective: Diabetes arising in chronic pancreatitis (CP) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Thus, methods to predict which CP patients are at greatest risk for diabetes are urgently needed. We aimed to examine independent risk factors for diabetes in a large cohort of CP. 

Research Design and Methods: This cross-sectional study consisted of 645 individuals enrolled in the PROCEED study with CP, of whom 276 had diabetes. We conducted univariable and multivariable regression analyses of potential risk factors for diabetes. Model performance was assessed with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) analysis, and accuracy was evaluated by cross-validation. Exploratory analyses stratified the diabetes cases according to the timing of development of diabetes relative to the diagnosis of pancreatitis. 

Results: Independent correlates of diabetes in CP included risk factors for type 2 diabetes (older age, overweight/obese status, male, non-White race, tobacco use) as well as pancreatic disease-related factors (history of acute pancreatitis complications, non-alcoholic etiology of CP, exocrine pancreatic dysfunction, pancreatic calcification, pancreatic atrophy) (AUROC 0.745). Type 2 diabetes risk factors predominated in diabetes occurring before pancreatitis, and pancreatic disease-related factors predominated in diabetes occurring after pancreatitis. 

Conclusion: Multiple factors are associated with diabetes in CP, including canonical risk factors for type 2 diabetes and features associated with pancreatitis severity. This study lays the groundwork for the future development of models integrating clinical and non-clinical data to identify CP patients at risk for diabetes and identifies modifiable risk factors (obesity, smoking) on which to focus for diabetes prevention. 


U.S. Department of Health and Human Services > National Institutes of Health > National Cancer Institute

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services > National Institutes of Health > National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases P30DK063491 U01DK108288 U01DK108300 U01DK108306 U01DK108314 U01DK108320 U01DK108323 U01DK108326 U01DK108327 U01DK108328 U01DK108332 U01DK126300


Usage metrics

    Diabetes Care


    Ref. manager